Overseas Development Institute (ODI) Blog : Is Tony Blair’s legacy on Africa at risk?

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# re: Is Tony Blair’s legacy on Africa at risk? @ Tuesday, May 15, 2007 10:18 PM

Simon Maxwell's stock-taking of post-Gleneagles' developments does not do justice to the African side of the balance sheet. Their side of the bargain, incidentally, was to include more success in resolving African conflicts.
The Gleneagles analysis was shallow. The fact that the UK has since increased its aid more than others reflects our being hoist with the Gleneagles petard, and being less free to assess rigorously our investment.
The African results of the bargain struck in 2005 have been relatively disappointing. Last week's decision by the Africa group at the UN to vote Zimbabwe to the chair of the Commission on Sustainable Development shows that many of their governments take Africa's development less seriously than their rich development partners, and that they make light of our commitment and policies to tackle their continent's problems.
Public support in rich countries for development partnership in Africa needs to be founded on a less shallow basis if it is not to be continually eroded by the evidence of African failures, primarily in governance.
The starting point of the Commission for Africa's recommendations was that Africa had to drive its own development. But where are the drivers, the New African Leaders, to give the G8 their lead?

Edward Clay

# re: Is Tony Blair’s legacy on Africa at risk? @ Thursday, May 17, 2007 1:33 PM

Edward Clay hits several nails on the head. He is abolutely right that the Gleneagles analysis was so shallow that it makes little sense to make delivery on the resulting commitments a litmus test of the seriousness of donor countries about African development. I find it hard to understand why so many contributions to current debate, notably from campaigning NGOs that should know better, fail to appreciate this point. Have they not read Matthew Lockwood’s The State They’re In, a solid analysis of Africa’s development challenges by one of their own?

It is important, however, to be clear what we mean by shallowness. The relevant shallowness for me is the deduction of policies from moral outrage without the intervention of appropriate specialist knowledge. Regrettably, the Blair legacy in world affairs is shot through with this particular flaw. At some point during the last decade, New Labour’s commitment to an ethical foreign policy mutated into a foreign policy based simplistic moralism and deafness to informed advice. The failure of the Blair (and, I fear, the Brown) approach to Africa to draw on expert, diplomatic and academic, knowledge of the subject is not an isolated failure. Nor is the one with the most serious implications. That position, sadly, belongs to Iraq.

I make this clarification because Sir Edward’s comment is open to the reading that Government moralism on Africa is wrong mainly because it is one-sided. I too feel outraged at the indifference and stupidity that most of Africa’s political class show towards the plight of their poorest constituents. I think he is right that many African governments are less serious about development than their Northern partners. This needs to be said, particularly as a qualification on the true but dangerously incomplete proposition that country ownership of development policies is essential to their effectiveness. But better balance in moral outrage will not give us good policy.

Good policy, in development or foreign affairs, is politically inspired but professionally informed. Mechanisms have to exist to allow the accumulated evidence of history, economics, political science and other research disciplines to play a role behind the scenes, taking the rough edges off the sillier proposals before they go too far. Blair biographers will have something to say about the way relations between politicians, civil servants and personal advisers, as well as between No. 10 and departments of state, have changed over the last ten years, with what implications for the tapping of genuine expertise. But let me restrict myself to the field of development policy.

Experts will tell you, based on comparative history, that the parts of the world that have succeeded in development where Africa has failed not did not do so because their leaders were morally superior. On the contrary, reforming elites in Europe, east Asia and north America were seldom less self-seeking and commonly more brutal. The relevant differences are not at this level. They have to do with the different kinds of institutional logjams in which societies, and thus leaders, find themselves because of their history. Crucially, they include the different opportunities and incentives for radical change that domestic upheavals and/or the challenges of survival in the international system on occasion provide.

This is complicated stuff. History does not give us all the answers, because the world keeps changing. Research specifically targeted at this issue is needed, and is on ODI’s agenda for the next few years. On the other hand, there is already an abundance of reasonably well informed opinion in the UK and elswehere on what would be likely to work and what wouldn’t in assisting the political variables in Africa to move in a more developmental direction. In DFID alone there is quite enough experience of grass-roots realities and of country macro-economics to give us a better core policy than the Africa Commission’s “big push” idea which underlaid Gleneagles. There really isn’t any excuse, in this sense, for our leaders to pursue ill-advised, poorly considered courses of action.

Will a Brown premiership in the UK point us in a new direction in this respect, and help to steer the G8 towards a more mature and realistic posture as well? I hope so, but will not be altogether surprised if it doesn’t.

David Booth

David Booth

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# re: Is Tony Blair’s legacy on Africa at risk? @ Wednesday, July 04, 2007 2:49 PM

Is making an unfulfilled promise now called a 'legacy'.
I have no doubt that Tony Blair was full of good intentions, and even encouraged the leaders of the G8 states to declare their good intentions, but nothing has transpired. His legacy of unfulfilled promises is intact.

Keith Littlejohn

Is Tony Blair’s legacy on Africa at risk?

Tuesday, May 08, 2007 2:20 PM by Simon Maxwell

With the trade talks failing and aid volume way below target, is Tony Blair's legacy on Africa at risk? The G8 meeting in Heiligendamm, Germany, in June, provides a last opportunity to persuade the most powerful leaders in the world to deliver on their promises. Angela Merkel will need to show some muscle.

Africa is only on the agenda in Germany because Blair won Merkel over. He persuaded her not to focus exclusively on her preferred topic, energy security (for which read relations with Vladimir Putin). This was a brave decision, because Germany is one of the countries in the firing line for not meeting pledges made at Blair’s own G8, at Gleneagles, in 2005.

Gleneagles marked a high point in the international commitment to Africa, and was the result of a sustained campaign by UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and other members of the Government. Remember - and celebrate - Clare Short, battling for the Millennium Development Goals in the late 1990s. Remember Blair’s ‘scar on the conscience of the world speech’, at the Labour Party Conference in 2001. Remember Gordon Brown’s initiatives on debt relief, on HIV/AIDS, on education. And remember Hilary Benn, helping to build the grand bargain of 2005, in which the West promised more aid and a better trade deal, and in return, Africa promised democracy, good governance and the rule of law. No government has given this issue such profile and such priority, both at home and internationally.

Tony Blair set up the Africa Commission, which reported two years ago and which provided the intellectual framework for a ‘big push’ on Africa. It recommended doubling aid by 2010, from $50bn to $100bn, of which an extra $25bn for Africa, along with a deal on debt and agreement on trade. These were the key ‘asks’ of Make Poverty History, and were faithfully reflected at Gleneagles. Africa was promised its aid, also debt relief for 18 of the poorest countries, an end to export subsidies, and universal access to treatment for HIV/ADIS and malaria.

Two years on, the UK and some others have delivered, but many have not. Debt relief matters and has made a difference. In December, Sierra Leone became the 21st country, and the 17th in Africa, to reach ‘completion point’ under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries scheme, becoming eligible for 100% debt cancellation from the IMF, World Bank and African Development Bank. As Hilary Benn is fond of pointing out, millions of children in Africa are now at school, because debt relief has given governments the resources to pay for teachers and school buildings.

The aid picture is less encouraging. The latest figures, issued by the Development Assistance Committee of the OECD, show that aid to Africa increased by only 2 per cent last year. Italy’s aid fell by 30 per cent; US aid fell by 20 per cent; Japanese aid fell by 10 per cent. Germany’s went up, but by less than 1 per cent. UK aid rose by 13 per cent. The Africa Progress Panel, chaired by Kofi Annan, was right to sound a note of alarm. Pledges may or may not be met by a last minute surge as 2010 approaches – but rapid increases at the last minute are hard to manage. Africa needs a gradual and predictable scaling up.

Despite the shortfall, Africa is growing faster than at any time since the 1960s, partly boosted by debt relief and aid, but more by the impact of China’s demand for natural resources, which has driven the terms of trade sharply in Africa’s favour. Growth in per capita income is 4 per cent, faster than developed countries. Poverty is falling, too: down from 46 per cent to 41 per cent in the past five years. The numbers are still too high, of course, and with population rising, the absolute number of poor people has barely changed, at 300 million living below one dollar a day. Nevertheless, it is better to have growth and relative poverty reduction than not. At the same time, democracy is spreading and governance standards are rising, though too slowly. Africa’s own institutions are getting stronger, especially through the African Union. Africa remains the poorest continent. Darfur is a real scar on the conscience of the world. But there is good news in Africa.

Job done? Not yet. Growth needs to reach Asian levels. Health and education standards are still woeful by global standards. Infrastructure remains poor. And Africa’s skills base has been eroded by under-investment in universities and research. Make Poverty History has been re-born as The World Can’t Wait, and the list of demands is as long as ever. A rally in London on 2 June will call for full debt cancellation for all countries that need it, binding timetables for delivering 0.7% of GNP as aid, free health services, and a commitment to cut G8 carbon emissions by 80% by 2050.

Indeed, Africa faces the new challenge of global warming. Climate change has been another Blair campaign of great relevance to Africa. As Nick Stern discovered, and as the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change has reported, Africa is especially at risk. A rise of 2 degrees in average temperature could decimate the coffee industry in Uganda, for example. Across the continent, according to the IPCC, yields from rainfed agriculture could fall by 50% by as early as 2020. Across the world, at least 250 million people will be exposed to water stress.

The poorest are always most at risk. That is why Tony Blair has been right to keep pressing Africa’s case in the international arena, and why Gordon Brown will want and need to continue. There is a legacy - of vision, of will, and of UK action. One final effort may deliver an international legacy of collective responsibility.

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June 2007 - March 2009

Details:

The aim of this project is to conduct two surveys on the Alignment of Budget Support with National PRS processes: the first in 2007 and the second in 2008. A report on each survey will be produced for the Strategic Partnership with Africa (SPA) Budget Support Working Group (BSWG). This project follows on from previous surveys carried out by ODI for the SPA between 2003 and 2006.

Joint Learning Programme on SWAps: Cambodia
June 2007 - August 2007

Details:

ODI worked with Nils Boesen to deliver a Joint Learning Programme (JLP) workshop in Cambodia on Planning and Poverty Reduction. JLP learning events aim to develop capacity among donor and partner country staff to effectively participate in SWAp processes. The events are workshops focusing on ongoing local processes and are tailored so as to respond to local needs as defined by the partner country stakeholders and by donor agencies. The JLP is currently co-financed by Denmark, the European Union, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.

Mapping the Global Partnership for Development: Country-level mappings of global issues, external policies and country contexts.
June 2007 - March 2008

Details:

The aim of this project is to design and pilot a tool to map the impact in developing countries of a range of externally-driven issues such as trade, migration, security and the environment.

Alan Hudson, Linnea Jonsson

Norad Country Evaluation – Zambia
June 2007 - August 2007

Details:

The donor, Oxford Policy Management, undertook an evaluation of Norwegian development cooperation with Zambia from 1991 to 2006. Diana Cammack contributed to this evaluation as an International Political Scientist. The first phase was a study of power structures and development cooperation. Diana’s role: analysis of secondary material; key stakeholder interviews in Zambia; assistance to the development of the case study work and drafting the interim report. Involvement in the second phase was input to the case studies and the case study report.

Oxford Policy Management

Irish Aid Selection of 10th Programme Country - Statistical Indicators
May 2007 - June 2007

Details:

A document providing data for 38 developing countries in the following areas: (i) poverty; (ii) potential for development; (iii) need / aid levels; (iv) country size; (v) governance, and; (vi) presence of like-minded donors. The service was intended as an input into an assignment to provide guidance to Irish Aid on the selection of an additional programme country.

Facilitator CAPS Results Framework
May 2007 - May 2007

Details:

The purpose of this advisory work was to facilitate dialogue within DFID-Ghana to develop the programme Results Framework covering the Country Assistance Plan (CAP) period, in accordance with DFID’s CAP guidance. As well as a Results Framework for DFID-Ghana’s CAP there is a brief report with recommendations on completing the Results Matrix.

Analytical Paper on State-Building
May 2007 - July 2007

Details:

This is a background paper to give a broad overview of the literature and debates in the field of state building. The aim is to bring insights from a developmental states perspective to bear on the challenges of state-building in fragile and post-conflict states; and to explore some of the challenges for why externally supported state-building has not led to expected results in a number of cases. The paper informs the donor, DFID, in drawing together conclusions about the main lessons for the future in terms of how to approach state building.

David Booth, Alison Evans, Verena Fritz

Project Completion Reports for DFID Budget Support Programmes 04/05 and 05/06
May 2007 - May 2007

Details:

The aims of this project were to: Fulfil DFID’s corporate reporting requirements; Assess in broad terms the impact that DFID’s budget support programme has had in Sierra Leone; Make broad recommendations on improvements that could be made to DFID Sierra Leone’s budget support programme based on best international practice. This project involved a review of key documents and meetings with key Government officials and Donor Agencies, in particular the World Bank, EC and African Development Bank.

Assessment of Paris Baseline Survey Findings
May 2007 - June 2007

Details:

The overall objective of the assessments was to contribute to a prioritised and targeted approach for Danish and Norwegian development assistance to meet the 2010 targets of the Paris Declaration.

The specific objective was to obtain a more detailed mapping and analysis of Danish and Norwegian development assistance with regard to baseline data on the Paris Declaration indicators, pointing to areas where special attention is needed.

David Booth

Re-thinking aid policy in response to Zimbabwe's protracted crisis
May 2007 - June 2007

Details:

Roundtable discussion on 4th June 2007 at the ODI office, to focus on the deepening crisis in Zimbabwe, current aid modalities and programmatic design.

Kate Bird

UNCT Rwanda Liaison
May 2007 - June 2007

Details:

Establishment of Single UN Budgetary Arrangement at Country Level: Liaison with Rwanda UNCT

Scoping DFID's Policy on Human Rights
April 2007 - October 2007

Details:

This is a desk based study to scope DFID’s current policy on specific human rights in the UN Human Rights Conventions. The output is a report which describes and analyses DFID’s current policy on human rights as it relates to the UK’s external relations.

Tim Braunholtz, Marta Foresti, Tammie O'Neill, Bhavna Sharma

Strengthening Public Expediture Management in Bosnia and Herzegovina
April 2007 - June 2007

Details:

The aim of the project was to improve consistency between government policy objectives and expenditure allocations by strengthening budget planning and preparation processes at State, Entity and Canton levels of government.

Short Term Consultancy for Strategic Conflict Assessment
April 2007 - May 2007

Details:

This is a strategic conflict assessment study for The Asia Foundation (TAF) based in Pakistan. This entailed: 1) Designing the analytic framework for the study for the local consultants.
2) Mentoring the local consultants. 3) Writing the national overview based on the regional papers prepared by the local consultants subcontracted by TAF.

Diana Cammack

2007 Annual Report on the Results and Impact of IFAD Operations
April 2007 - September 2007

Details:

ODI provided a range of inputs into the fith Annual Report on the Results and Impact of IFAD Operations preparation process including leading on, reviewing and co-authoring various chapters and papers; facilitating workshops etc.

Ed Hedger

Application of the Performance Based Allocation (PBA) System to Fragile States
April 2007 - June 2007

Details:

The aims of this project were to: Provide input for discussion at the coordination meeting of IDA15 EU deputies in June 2007; Provide scientific background information for strengthening the German position on the IDA15 special theme of ‘fragile states’ and for the German evaluation of the Performance Based System (PBA) in general; Provide recommendations on Germany’s position on PBA with respect to fragile states.

This project involves an analysis of World Bank data and analysis of current literature, including existing studies on PBA and fragile states and current debate within the World Bank, NGOs and the academic community.

Nick Highton, Cecilie Wathne, Rowan Putman

EU Aid Effectiveness
April 2007 - June 2007

Details:

This study on EU Aid Effectiveness has been commissioned by the European Parliament’s Committee on Development. The study selects a number of countries to look at as case studies with a particular focus on aid effectiveness at the EU level.

ODI/AAPPG Meetings Series: Parliaments and Development
April 2007 - May 2007

Details:

A series of public meetings on parliaments and development, jointly-organised by ODI and the Africa All-Party Parliamentary Group in April-May 2007.

Alan Hudson

Strategic Governance and Corruption Assessments
April 2007 - March 2009

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Related blogs

Resources links

What do you think?

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Related projects